Number Sense

Like the game at carnivals in which contestants guess the number of jellybeans in the jar, school districts estimate what enrollment numbers the University Interscholastic League will settle on as cutoffs to separate Class 5A from 4A, 4A from 3A, 3A from 2A, and 2A from 1A.

The UIL no doubt uses a more scientific method to decide in what classification schools will compete athletically for the next two years. It’s actually the schools and their administrators who are left guessing whether they might be 5A or 4A in 2008 and ’09 or which schools they might be playing against in district games the next two years.

“I don’t know what the numbers are going to be,” Mission High coach Tom Lee said. “We’re on the bubble (for 5A), I guess.”

Two of the more intriguing storylines for February’s upcoming realignment announcement are whether Mission will return to 5A for the first time since moving to 4A for the 2002 season, and what to make of the La Joya schools.

Lee says his school turned in an enrollment figure of 2,070, which figures to push the Eagles into the 5A ranks. They were the biggest Rio Grande Valley Class 4A school at the last realignment with 1,909 students.

The Valley’s smallest 5A enrollment in 2006 was McAllen Memorial at 2,012. This year, Brownsville Porter is the current 5A school that has turned in the lowest enrollment figure, 2,034, which is 36 students fewer than Mission.

“It’s kind of one of those things where you kind of got to do what you’ve got to do,” said Lee, whose Eagles play in District 32-4A. “We definitely want the challenge and to go back up. There’s a little bit of an adjustment competing against schools with higher enrollments and more kids. That would be the biggest adjustment.”

Speaking of adjustments, La Joya will be splitting into three high schools for this alignment. The La Joya ISD has been given an extension to Nov. 14 by the UIL to turn in its numbers since it will have two new schools. But La Joya athletic director Victor Garza confirmed the district will house two 5A schools and one 4A institution.

“The preliminary numbers indicate that. More than likely, that’s how it’s going to end up,” Garza said. “The zone increased for high school No. 2 more than we anticipated.”

Garza said La Joya High will remain a 5A school and will have an enrollment figure “over 2,800.” The other unnamed 5A school will not have a senior class its first year, while the still-to-be-named 4A school will have seniors.

If Mission indeed moves up to 5A, the La Joya 4A school likely will fill the Eagles’ slot in District 32-4A. But the Valley already has three 5A districts that have eight, eight and seven schools. So if three more 5A schools are going to be added to the mix, it’s likely there will be some juggling as it looks like no one is dropping to 4A, giving the Valley 28 schools with Class 5A enrollments.

Common sense has the three McAllen schools playing in the same 5A district, the three Edinburg schools staying together, and three Pharr-San Juan-Alamo schools in one league. With two La Joya schools, two Mission schools (Sharyland) and Rio Grande City, that makes for 11 Upper Valley Class 5A schools.

The lower Valley 5As figure to remain the same: five Brownsville schools, Los Fresnos, San Benito and the two Harlingen schools. Mid-Valley schools Weslaco High and Donna were split in the last realignment and appear to be the wild cards again. The one logistical nightmare all the area schools hope doesn’t happen is being shipped to a Laredo or Corpus Christi district.

Each of the Harlingen schools and San Benito were placed in District 29-5A with Corpus Christi schools, a venture that was disadvantageous financially.

“We might be on the bubble as far as moving, but we’ll move together,” Harlingen CISD athletic director Randy Cretors said. “We’re a growing area again, and I don’t see us going to a fourth (5A) district at this time simply because Laredo has so many schools right now and has their own district. You might see a fourth district with involvement with Corpus Christi. Believe me, I don’t want to see that. We’ve been down that road before.”

How this will all shake out is anyone’s guess.

Numerous scenarios will be played out by coaches, administrators and fans, with the answers coming in February when the coaches open their UIL packet at the Region I building in Edinburg. They all hope there are no major surprises, but there almost always is whether it’s a team changing classifications for joining a new district.

“We’ll just be sitting and waiting, I guess, like everybody else to find out where we fall,” Lee said.

Todd Mavreles is the Deputy Sports Editor for The Monitor. You can reach him at (956) 683-4451.

ENROLLMENT NUMBERS

2006 Enrollment

Class 5A (1,925 and above)

La Joya 5,316

Brown. Hanna 3,023

Donna 2,772

Harlingen High 2,581

San Benito 2,561

Rio Grande City 2,444

Edinburg High 2,435

Brown. Porter 2,390

Brown. Pace 2,389

Los Fresnos 2,301

PSJA High 2,288

PSJA North 2,209

Sharyland 2,198

Weslaco High 2,192

Edinburg North 2,184

Brown. Lopez 2,174

McAllen High 2,142

Brown. Rivera 2,132

Economedes 2,132

Harlingen South 2,082

PSJA Memorial 2,060

McAllen Rowe 2,038

Mc. Memorial 2,012

Class 4A (900-1,924)

Mission High 1,914

Miss. Veterans 1,779

Weslaco East 1,685

Roma 1,621

Edcouch-Elsa 1,521

Mercedes 1,288

Valley View 963

Class 3A (389-899)

Hidalgo 810

La Feria 762

Port Isabel 703

Raymondville 682

Rio Hondo 651

Progreso 488

Lyford 435

Class 2A (190-389)

Santa Rosa 356

Class A (189 and below)

La Villa 177

Santa Maria 166

2008 Enrollment

Class 5A (current)

La Joya TBA

Brown. Hanna 3,141

Donna 3,028

Harlingen High 2,654

San Benito 2,673

Rio Grande City 2,659

Edinburg High 2,605

Brown. Porter 2,034

Brown. Pace 2,593

Los Fresnos 2,300

PSJA High 2,528

PSJA North 2,407

Sharyland 2,597

Weslaco High 2,414

Edinburg North 2,495

Brown. Lopez 2,228

McAllen High 2,261

Brown. Rivera 2,189

Economedes 2,384

Harlingen South 2,209

PSJA Memorial 2,291

McAllen Rowe 2,214

Mc. Memorial 2,090

Class 4A (current)

Mission High 2,070

Miss. Veterans 1,889

Weslaco East 1,822

Roma 1,724

Edcouch-Elsa 1,584

Mercedes 1,414

Valley View 1,122

Class 3A (current)

Hidalgo 883

La Feria 859

Port Isabel 699

Raymondville 664

Rio Hondo 642

Progreso 505

Lyford 431

Class 2A (current)

Santa Rosa 342

Class A (current)

La Villa 183

Santa Maria 144

UIL HISTORY OF REALIGNMENTS

2006-08

5A: 1,985 and above

4A: 949 to 1,984

3A: 415 to 948

2A: 195 to 414

A: 194 and below

2004-06

5A: 1,925 and above

4A: 900 to 1,924

3A: 389 to 899

2A: 190 to 389

A: 189 and below

2002-04

5A: 1,910 and above

4A: 900 to 1,909

3A: 345 to 899

2A: 180 to 344

A: 179 and below

2000-2002

5A: 1,865 and above.

4A: 845 to 1,864.

3A: 345 to 844.

2A: 170 to 344.

A: 169 and below.

1998-2000

5A: 1,780 and above.

4A: 780 to 1,779.

3A: 345 to 779.

2A: 160 to 344.

A: 159 and below.